Pre-Debate Polling and a Path to Victory

By Jedediah Bila

President Obama and Mitt Romney will hit the stage at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida at 9:00 ET tonight for the final presidential debate. Under the umbrella of foreign policy, moderator Bob Schieffer announced that the topics will be “America’s role in the world,” “Our longest war – Afghanistan and Pakistan,” “Red Lines – Israel and Iran,” “The Changing Middle East and the New Face of Terrorism – I”, “The Changing Middle East and the New Face of Terrorism – II,” and “The Rise of China and Tomorrow’s World.” What does polling look like as we head into this last debate?

Here are some recent highlights:

Rasmussen–Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 46%

Rasmussen–Swing State Tracking: Romney 49%, Obama 46% (The states include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.)

Quinnipiac/CBS News–Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Obama’s lead has been cut from a 53 to 43 percent advantage on Sept. 26.)

CNN/ORC International–Florida: Romney 49%, Obama 48%

POLITICO-George Washington UniversityRomney 49%, Obama 47%

NBC/Wall Street JournalRomney 47%, Obama 47% (“In the previous national NBC/WSJ poll, which was conducted before debate season began, the president held a narrow, three-point lead over his GOP challenger, 49 percent to 46 percent.”)

Gallup, Oct. 19-21–Registered Voters: Romney 48%, Obama 47% ; Likely Voters: Romney 51%, Obama 45%

Romney needs another strong debate performance to solidify his momentum heading into the final two weeks. His delivery thus far has been on point–confident, competent, solution-focused, and empathetic. He has been strong on facts, presented a forward vision, and held Barack Obama accountable for both failed policies and promises not kept.

Tonight’s debate is pivotal in presenting Romney’s view of America’s role in the world. America’s position of strength should, of course, be tied to a strong economy; reversing Obama’s ballooning debt and deficits are key.

Heritage reminds us of some other key points:

“The U.S. seeks not war but the preservation of peace, and the central purpose of its forces is not simply to win wars but to stop them from occurring by deterring adversaries.”

“We have a tremendous interest in the promotion of economic freedom in the U.S. and around the world, both because it increases our prosperity and that of our friends and because economic freedom is closely tied to political freedom, individual liberty, and many other good outcomes, such as a cleaner environment.”

“The purpose of American diplomacy is to secure the national interests of the U.S.…What is wrong and irresponsible is not U.S. participation in negotiations but diplomacy that is not subject to the consent of the governed, infringes on U.S. sovereignty, fails to respect President Reagan’s dictum of ‘trust, but verify,’ or fails to reflect our values.”

Romney must do more than address the President’s incompetence and inconsistencies on foreign policy. He must address Obama’s failed leadership and an Obama Doctrine that stands in opposition to the “peace through strength” philosophy that would help to keep both America and our allies safe.

Romney may also face some challenges tonight that Obama won’t. Take a look at Bob Schieffer’s history of bias. In other words, Romney must be ready for just about anything.

The good news? I think he will be.




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9 years ago

Myhouseof6 I don’t think my posts have been nearly as ugly as yours. I think we have VERY DIFFERENT ideas as to why the cuotnry is in the current mess that it is. I also think we have very different ideas when it comes to the presidential election. I guess we agree to disagree, right? I have never once written untrue or mean comments regarding McCain. I have stated that although I don’t support or agree with him, I do have respect for him. You don’t have to like someone or agree with them but you do need to show respect. I just have to comment on your idea that the Democrats are responsible for the mess that comes out of the last eight years. The Democrats have only been the majority for the past two years. Someone else is to blame for the six years before that and I think that MOST Americans would agree that the Bush Administration is the one to blame. His approval rating has been in the dumps for quite some time now and I think people are finally ready for a change. That being said, I do hope Obama wins. However, either man is going to have a VERY tough road ahead of them trying to clean up the mess we are in.[]

John Hutchinson
9 years ago

I hope Romney takes out Xerxes in the First Round ! If I had a concern, it would be the moderators’ interaction in the debate…..Mitt has to neutralize him from the opening question EG: Candy just happened to have a Whitehouse Rose Garden transcript there at the 2nd debate ??? Media Bias out of control !!

9 years ago

I’ve read this blogs a few times and have never commented, but now I’d like to. So, thank you for leittng me get some much needed thoughts off my chest. In my opinion, it is purely socialism v.s. capitalism. If the world views us in such a negative light, then why do we have so many people from all over the world immigrating here??? Because this is the land of opportunity and freedom. Those of you that have friends in Canada, you should ask them how long does it take for you to get an appointment with your doctor? Neither candidate is perfect. When I vote on election day I will look at it as if I’m looking at 2 resumes. I will also consider the big reason I’m for McCain is because I feel if we don’t have strong national security, we won’t have an economy. One more thing for those of you who make fun of McCain’s robotic gestures, it’s because of his injuries as a POW. Not very funny since I’ve heard horror stories from my father who was a POW. So, show some respect. Lastly, I think Obama will probably win the election, but you won’t find me being bitter because I don’t dwell on things that are out of my control.[]

9 years ago

Terrific article, very encouraging too! Thanks!!

9 years ago

CAN’T WAIT TO SEE Romney put Obama in his PLACE once and for ALL

9 years ago

Will be watching, hope he hits a home run.

9 years ago

Well said! Can’t wait for the debate!

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